Quantum for Investors – the truth
Quantum Computing has tremendous potential but a long time horizon. It offers tremendous potential to solve hard optimization problems that have huge applications in chemistry, finance, logistics and many other industries. Yet, time horizons for the QC hard- and software to deliver on that is 5 – 15 years in a very uncertain environment.
The biggest opportunity for investors is to get ahead of market consolidation as larger vendors (IBM, Microsoft, Intel, Honeywell, etc) and well funded startups (Rigetti, Zapata, CQC, etc) are looking to dominate certain areas of the QC market through acquisitions.
Sensing, communications and QKD (encryption) are QIS applications with current or immediate commercial applications. This presents an opportunity to participate in exponential market growth if able to bet on the right horse. In an environment where the vendors and players in these specific markets are less well known than classical QC companies, the opportunity to understand and assess these niches to take strategic positions is a significant opportunity to realize upside potential within 10 years or less.
Across QIS applications and companies, there is a lot of hype, very little commercial track record, few references and barely any hard data points to assess the viability of an investment. This is a risk for uninformed investors and a potential competitive advantage for those that are able to allocate their capital based on an information asymmetry.